Will there be 10 billion humanoid robots?

Cyrus Radfar on originally posted on LinkedIn
2 min read
robotics , manufacturing , resources , sustainability

Before we break down Musk’s prediction, I’ll give you the punchline.

TLDR; We don’t have the raw materials with today’s technology to make it happen. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible it’s just we need a big shift.

Breaking it down, let’s consider an averaged design to get to a ballpark set of requirements and numbers.

Let’s assume a weight: 100 lbs (45.4 kg) for a biped robot

Looking at raw materials — let’s extrapolate from the single robot.

1. Structural Components (~40% of weight: 40 lbs / 18.16 kg)

  • Aluminum alloys: 12 lbs (frame, joints)
  • Carbon fiber composites: 8 lbs (shells, panels)
  • High-strength steel: 10 lbs (key load-bearing components)
  • Engineering plastics: 10 lbs (covers, non-load bearing parts)

2. Actuation (Moving) Systems (~25% of weight: 25 lbs / 11.34 kg)

  • Electric motors: 15 lbs (est 20-30 motors per unit)
    • Rare earth magnets (NdFeB): 1.5 lbs
    • Copper windings: 3 lbs
    • Steel laminations: 10.5 lbs
  • Gearboxes and transmission: 10 lbs
    • Precision steel gears: 8 lbs
    • Bearings and hardware: 2 lbs

3. Power System (~15% of weight: 15 lbs / 6.8 kg)

  • Lithium-ion batteries: 12 lbs
  • Power management electronics: 3 lbs

4. Electronics & Computing (~10% of weight: 10 lbs / 4.54 kg)

  • Main computer board: 1 lb
    • Processors/SoCs: ~100g
    • Memory (RAM/Storage): ~200g
    • Other components: ~154g
  • Sensor systems: 5 lbs
    • Cameras, LIDAR, IMUs, force sensors
  • Control boards and wiring: 4 lbs

5. Miscellaneous (~10% of weight: 10 lbs / 4.54 kg)

  • Fasteners and connectors
  • Thermal management systems
  • Padding and protection
  • Aesthetic components

Now that we have a Unit (on average), let’s consider the scale at which we’re talking from a raw material perspective for 10B units.

Critical Materials

  1. Aluminum: 120B lbs (54.4M metric tons)
  2. Steel: 180B lbs (81.6M metric tons)
  3. Copper: 30B lbs (13.6M metric tons)
  4. Rare Earth Elements: 15B lbs (6.8M metric tons)
  5. Lithium (for batteries): 120B lbs of Li-ion batteries
  6. Silicon (for electronics): ~1M metric tons

Semiconductor Requirements

Assuming each robot needs:

  • 1 main SoC
  • 20-30 microcontrollers
  • Various sensor chips
  • Power management ICs

Total semiconductor wafer requirement: ~500M wafers (300mm)

Let’s consider our current global production of raw materials.

  • Current global annual aluminum production: ~6M metric tons
  • Current global annual steel production: ~1.8B metric tons
  • Current global annual copper production: ~20M metric tons
  • Current global annual rare earth production: ~350K metric tons
  • Current global annual lithium production: ~180K metric tons

Now, the reality is — if you’re reading between the lines, my discussion assumes today’s technology so the limiting factor here is Lithium (power) and rare earth metals which would both need to be solved for Elon to hit his prediction.

Big bet, you think he’s right?

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