Projections on OpenAI after Altman
This is my last projection on Sam’s departure.
Why? It’ll be a case study in the impact of risk-focused leadership vs visionary impact-focused.
Whoever is next, will likely be more of risk-focused executive because that’s truly the only types of people who have the pedigree and can speak the language to comfort the Board and investors. They’re not bad, they’re great at take a working asset and “fix” it, but they’re not the best at making step-change improvements or changes to a business which is, actually, still needed.
Recall that the board is shocked and, likely, feels attacked personally and professionally after getting asked to resign. They don’t want to look dumb and they know the community is watching.
The “right” CEO isn’t going to look obvious and who they pick will look, frankly, great.
It’s unlikely they’ll pick another maverick like Sam. They’ll want someone they can control.
I’ll bet on a “seasoned CEO” who has public market experience. What that means, is they’re used to managing risk on a successful business model not creating and designing new businesses.
In short, they’ll protect the asset, improve it from an efficiency standpoint and focus on people management versus product vision.
The things to watch out for:
- Release cadence slowing
- Quality dropping as the team loses connection to the vision
- Rolling back product features on faster under “controversy”
- A focus on non-scalable business development vs eco-system creation
- Look for fluffy partnership announcements vs tech announcements.
- Transition of language from innovation and conquering the world, to safety, and security both in product and in the, eventually, in careers
- Hiring more agreeable individuals as risk-averse leaders create cultures don’t appreciate conflict and dissent
In 18 - 24 months, we’ll see the effects of the talent drain as over half the team has joined in the last year and won’t likely be as poachable before seeing how things shake out.