Hot take on the future of coding

If you code for a living today, you probably won’t be able to in five years unless you’re already in the top 1% of engineers.

Let’s Define “Coding for a Living”

You’re an Individual Contributor (IC) who:

• Translates a product backlog into a technical plan.
• Writes and deploys the code based on technical plans.
• Iterates on released code.

That software development lifecycle will evolve — but it won’t bring all the people with it.

Future State

• One person will steer fleets of coding agents through a single “leader” agent that coordinates the rest.
• Human architects shrink to a sliver: at Google, fewer than 1% of engineers hold above the Principal title.
• Design follows the same curve—many agent-designers, a few brilliant human directors.

For the other 99% who mainly execute: re-skill.

Market Dynamics

Arguably, Agent platforms will mirror past winner-takes-most curves for technology platforms. Search engines and mobile OSs show one vendor holding roughly 90% share while the runner-up clings to single digits.

With so few dominant players—and those firms already exist—the bulk of execution work will move to autonomous systems that cost pennies yet create trillions.

I’ve shipped AI products for over a decade. Progress is accelerating. GitHub’s new Copilot coding agent and OpenAI Codex preview show how fast “raw model power + systems” can eclipse human throughput.

The Jobs Picture

Factory lines, driving, security, and routine coding are all on the automation chopping block. Studies project 20 million roles and up to 300 million total jobs at risk by 2030.

What’s next? Tell me what you see—I’ve ranted enough for one Friday.